it is not in good shape, let alone any hopes for expansion and inclusive growth. have we reached saturation, a point from where we can merely sustain past successes and not tread into newer horizons? it’s time we stop blaming geopolitical tensions for the economic stagnation, rather find rationales.
it’s simple, the economy runs on three sectors, primary, secondary and tertiary.
now when we were growing our capabilities and outputs in primary – agriculture and allied activities – and secondary – industrial production of tangible goods – we made sustainable progress. we not only pulled out many from poverty but created a space of material wants, which when achieved gave meaning to life.
the next stage, that saw revolutionary research and development in the tertiary sector – services like communication and information technology – was when viabilities eroded and sustainable and inclusive growth became elusive.
according to the definition, development is a shift from agrarian activities to manufacturing and a subsequent move toward services.
the former was sustainable since ample food production could sustain non-agricultural ventures; however, the latter is proving untenable for services cannot supersede manufacturing and ample manufacturing isn’t a driver for shift toward services.
global growth today is a representative of supremacy of services over primary and secondary sectors; a developed nation is one that produces more of services and less of the latter two. this is where the problem lies, and if not corrected, golden days of progression and poverty eradication will never revisit the global economy.
the idea advocates supremacy of secondary sector and its participants over those functioning in tertiary.
the rationale is that you may think of outsourcing information technology, cloud computing, robotics, but to whom will you outsource when the global system would crash owing to disincentives to manufacturing sector?
it is time we correct the basics and incentivize manufacturing and related research. the so-called information technology revolution is just rhetoric, it won’t repeat historic success of industrial revolution.