With no one Noticing, BJP is Bringing One-Party Rule

Neue Wache- a building in Berlin, Germany- was erected in early 19^th century. In the initial years, it was a memorial to Liberations Wars but later served as the site of annual celebrations by the then powerful Nazi Party. The building houses a sculptor, ‘Mother with her Dead Son’. This very statue is a reminder of the costs of war, war that was seen and projected by Hitler as a means to achieve dominance. Hitler may have died after having drastically failed to realise his ambitions, Germany endured endless sufferings. No family existed that did not lose its member in war. The costs of Hitler’s ambitions were paid by common people, and the statue where a grieving mother is holding her dead son symbolizes this.

It is very simple to understand that the overly ambitious, divisive and great-at-oratory leader plunged not only Germany but all other countries into darkness. Nations have learned their lessons, and a large-scale war has been averted ever since. Indeed, countries have fought proxy wars and the places which were at the heart of these conflicts could never recover from the damages. Iraq, Yemen, Syria and many more countries have only produced war refugees and asylum-seekers, not farm or industrial goods.

What about the present political environment in India? Although analysts have taken note of economic gloom and negative GDP growth, are we realising what’s in the making? Is there a more dangerous thing that seeks our attention?

The signs are all here, and sadly no one is noticing what’s coming. The ruling BJP has, time and again, echoed its stance of making a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’, and to a large extent, they have achieved it. Now one must try to make sense of why the BJP is so adamant at wiping off Congress from the Indian political landscape. It’s because Congress is the only political party that can replace the BJP; the others can only co-exist with the BJP and can never throw it completely out of power. The BJP’s design and party’s long-term goal has virtually nothing to do with India’s socio-economic well-being, the only goal is to remain in power.

And the party has been making all attempts to attain the goal. It is for a reason why the PM and his team invoke militaristic pride every now and then. If there is one thing that is sustaining BJP’s win in national and state elections, it is their clever way of invoking ultra-nationalism. While many are talking about this chauvinism, no one is actually realising where it can take India in the long-run. What do you think will be the electoral outcomes in next 15 years? Indeed, no one can correctly predict, and hence assuming that the BJP will maintain the current trend is not advisable. But what will happen if say people start voting for some other party, which comes out with a slim majority to form government at the centre?

Do you think the BJP will concede? The answer is available; we only need to read the signs. The PM was wearing a military uniform in his recent address on Diwali; why would he do this? A chief of defence staff (CDS) has been appointed to ‘address fragmented approach of armed forces and bring synergy’. In another scene, a section of the film industry is finding political patronage by making films on wars where historical facts can be distorted to instill a sense of militaristic pride in the Indian audience. And lastly, other leaders of the BJP- from national to local levels- have been endorsing a majoritarian stance so that in any event of electoral failure, mass can be mobilized in the name of militaristic and majoritarian pride.

The coming years in Indian politics are quite worrisome. If voters continue to back the BJP by sacrificing their personal growth, BJP can go for misadventures like the Nazi Germany that will ultimately cost India irrespective of whether we win or lose such unwarranted wars. And if voters ultimately decide to shun the BJP, the party will then use the section of populace that blindly backs their ideology to create unrest and maintain the one-party rule. From many in India Inc. to overly sentimental backers, BJP will use them all to ensure they cling on to power. The costs will be borne by the country and its wider population.

Political Alternative or a Military Coup- India Must Brace Itself

First things first. Although Germany had surrendered in May 1945, the WW2 in the Pacific came to an end only in August after the US had dropped nuclear bombs on Japan. It is a well-documented fact that Japan did not anticipate such devastating defeat and the subsequent occupation of the country by the US. The point is that things may occur unexpected. But the job of thinkers and analysts is to warn the stakeholders of any such probable events, and this is why discussing any possibility of a military coup in India makes sense, though this may be very distant and extremely unlikely.

But before we talk of this ‘strong’ term- coup d’état- let’s first consider what is relatively in the offing. That the Modi-led cabinet cannot rule prudently is a shared viewpoint of almost all non-partisan intellectuals and analysts. A seemingly-better-alternative-to-BJP wins in state polls even when BJP plays the faith card. Delhi and states in the South and even INC’s victory with slim margins in few states corroborate this argument. PM Modi, however, remains the preferred choice of most Indians and this is because of the lack of alternative in national politics.

On the other hand, the economy is in a freefall, joblessness is high, prices are rising and there is no visible improvement in law and order or in border situation as was anticipated by Indians when they boarded the Modi bandwagon. Any fair analysis will predict that the sole pillar of BJP support is the Hindu majoritarian political stance of the party. But do you think that the public at large will continue backing this stance in the long-run? That the ordinary man craves personal growth more than faith supremacy alone was validated in Delhi state elections. What will happen when the presently-concealed-by-oratory situation comes out in the open and the public realises that the Modi oratory isn’t enough for personal growth?

Here, we must consider the first part of this article’s heading- political alternative. Just one late development is enough to understand how badly the country needs an alternative. LJP, a party that was part of NDA in Bihar and allied with JD (U) and BJP to run the administration is likely to side with the winning coalition in 2020. In fact, politics has stooped so low that Nitish, who fought the elections alongside RJD and cursed BJP in the run up to 2015 state polls, shunned his allies to join hands with BJP. This is just one of many such immoral, unethical power games in the current political setup that have made/ will make the ordinary man disenchanted, but the lack of alternative is helping BJP and others maintain a winning streak.

Isn’t it understandable that this is the most suitable time for aspirants to give the country what it urgently seeks- a political alternative? The Emergency and 1977 general elections were a watershed moment; it was the dawn of regional parties and non-Congress PMs. What 2020 and next few years will bring is the similar opportunity for wise and ethical men to challenge the might of Modi and fill the void that has emerged due to INC’s inability to seize the moment. In coming days, we are set to see further GDP contraction and an invisible class struggle that can pave way for a new breed of politicians to reduce the gap between classes and bring inclusive development.

Now, it’s time to discuss the second part. In the absence of any such political alternative in near future, the countrymen may be left with no other choice than to feel disillusioned with civilian politics. The Modi cult or that of other BJP politicians isn’t eternal, and some late developments in the country- indeed, under the patronage of BJP- can decisively shift the mood of the public towards high-handed, centralized administration and this is when they might look at military as a good alternative. Take a look at Pakistan’s history- the first coup in 1958 was a product of events that included making Pakistan an Islamic Republic, failure of judiciary, cult figures in politics and military, and a general sentiment that politicians were weak and corrupt.

India is facing too many threats simultaneously, and it is in light of these threats that a military coup may in some distant future become a reality. From Chinese border incursions to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and record-breaking unemployment rate and rising inflation, there are so many failures that presently stand concealed behind majoritarian politics, however, will in near future dominate the political discourse. Believe us, all the news- from unscientific ways to deal with the pandemic to silent subversion of the constitution to more-than-judicious veneration of military to growing class gap, where the state employee is an elite and private sector worker a nothing- we read and often pay no attention to will shape the landscape of the country.

And so as it seems, the country must decide on what it seeks and deserves- an alternative led by civilians with ethical intentions or a coup of some sort. We may choose to ignore it now, just like Japan ignored many of its misadventures in WW2, or the US in Vietnam War, but the national political scene is somewhat fragile and a course correction will take place- sooner or later.

Does ‘Vocal for Local’ resemble China’s ‘Giant Leap Forward’?

Detractors can say that while India’s Vocal for Local campaign has been started by a political party that vehemently rejects communism, the Giant Leap Forward (GLF) was started in late 1950s by a communist regime, and hence any comparison is innately flawed. Here, it is important to note that all definitions of capitalism, socialism and communism that have ruled textbooks and discussions for decades now seek alteration owing to some late developments. For example, the communist China became more liberal, less protectionist under Deng Xiaoping, while the capitalist US has become protectionist under Trump.

That said, let’s begin with why the much-hyped vocal for local campaign of PM Modi may leave India poorer. The GLF’s failure and resulting Great Chinese Famine hold the cue.

When Chairman Mao Zedong launched GLF, he foresaw China becoming self-sufficient in production of steel, back then a product seen as fundamental to economic growth. What Mao did was he moved labour from farms to ‘backyard furnaces’ to augment steel production in China. Barely equipped with proper infrastructure and technical expertise, this plan backfired and what heightened the pain was that public officials suppressed the failure of the plan for long in order to stay in the good books of Mao.

Compare this with what the Indian PM seeks from his vocal for local pitch. He wants Indians to produce goods that were hitherto imported from other countries, especially from enemy countries including China. In simple words, he wants Indian banks to cut their dependence on point-of-sale machines imported from China and rather use locally produced products. He also wants Indians to shun platforms like TikTok- we will not talk about national security concerns here- and move to locally made platform.

The debate here is local v foreign and the PM has projected India as capable of being a self-sufficient or self-reliant nation. But let’s be rational. Why did we need to import in the first place? It’s because we do not yet have the expertise to produce similar goods locally and match price and quality of imported goods. India is an IT behemoth and our techies grab the largest chunk of professional visas in the US and other developed countries. In simple terms, we are good in terms of techies but lack when it comes to producing some goods, and let’s accept this.

Mao miscalculated results of his GLF campaign and the same public that backed his efforts with an ultra-nationalistic fervor was the biggest loser in the end. Now consider another program that ran parallel with GLF- the ‘Hundred Flowers’. Here, Mao encouraged criticism of government policies for a short period, however, in the end identified criticizers and persecuted them. Can you find a resemblance? Intellectuals rarely get rewarded in the Modi-regime. From RBI heads to ECs- anyone who critiqued the government was shown the door. It means that while there was no one left in China to warn Mao of the inevitable failure of his short-sighted backyard furnace plan, in India, anyone who will advocate that India should not be ultra-protectionist, at least for the sake of the poor, will risk being seen as anti-national.

The losers, however, in the end will be the general public. Inflation has breached the acceptable threshold and contraction in GDP growth is inescapable. Add to this the impact of import-substitution. From toys to auto components, import duties have been hiked with a view to ‘promote’ the local industry. We all have read how imports remained stuck for weeks at ports owing to delayed custom clearances and unwarranted red tape. All this is doing nothing but making goods and services expensive in India.

There is another element to this. The government has also restricted FDI from countries bordering India citing national security concerns. Do we forget that many startups, from Swiggy to Paytm to OYO, are funded by investors from neighbouring country? These startups have been burning cash for years and have yet to turn profitable. They, however, employ a considerable chunk of labourforce. Does India have any farsighted plan to employ these workers should these startups choose to shut shop?

There is much to write. However, let’s conclude with some notable failures of GLF. Infrastructure was hastily developed without much technical expertise that resulted in the unfortunate dam collapse incident a few years later. Unsubstantiated farming techniques were employed to increase output, however, it resulted in drastic fall. All this calls for a well-planned policy for import-substitution instead of ceding to the popular call of ‘boycott’.

PS: National security is paramount. At the same time, policy stance of the government has to be rational, not populist.

how to read 2019 lok sabha poll results

there are three major players in 2019 lok sabha elections- the ruling bjp, main opposition party congress and a vague third front, which can comprise of various regional parties led by leaders including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik and others. There can be a number of outcomes. One can be either the bjp or congress attaining absolute majority in the house and forming the new government with ease. however, chances of this are extremely slim.

In the second scenario, a pre-poll alliance, nda or upa, may attain majority. However, if any of the factions, nda or upa, falls short of majority, it will be comparatively easier for upa to muster support from those who may play the kingmaker. Last scenario is of the undeclared third front hitting the majority mark with combined seats from all parties in this faction. This can lead to a probable fight over the office of prime minister and key ministerial berths.

having noticed what may happen in the impending elections, let us also look at how 2019 lok sabha polls will serve as a reminder to all political parties in future parliamentary polls.

bjp’s campaign is focused primarily on nationalism and majoritarianism. even the party understands that they haven’t fared well on economic count and hence, the campaign has been diverted towards patriotism and a threat to india from evil foreign forces that the bjp says can only be averted by it. although the recently released manifesto of the party talks of better days for farmers and poor, this has been relegated to the backseat with main emphasis on ram mandir, influx of refugees and j&k focused article 35a.

congress’s campaign is populist and relies on connecting with those who are still marginalized after end of 60-months rule of bjp. the party manifesto isn’t tilted towards majoritarianism and focusses largely on the poor living conditions of  many indian households. the manifesto, however, appears inclusive on its face and this can appeal to minority religions, primarily islam.

now if the bjp emerges after the election as the party with highest number of seats and does form government, one can note that today’s india has moved beyond basic political themes and internal security and nationalism have captured the imagination of voters. this will serve as a testimony to indian voters tilt towards a centralized government with a strong figurehead.

in the second scenario, if the congress emerges as the largest party and does form government by seeking or without seeking support from other winners, this should serve as a reminder to political analysts and other stakeholders that poverty alleviation is still the single most important theme in indian polity. this shall also serve as a reminder that indians place trust in underdogs (first the teaseller,and now someone who has been made a subject of mockery by the bjp) and doesn’t like leaders presented as kings.

this is the only learning that one can and must take from 2019 lok sabha polls outcomes. rest will only be trp-generating content.

rahaf al-qunun’s saudi escape has lessons for indians

qunun, a saudi woman, who fled her country to find refuge in a more liberal and welcoming society, grabbed international attention recently. her transit at a thailand airport, her barricading herself in the hotel room to prevent authorities from forcibly handing her back to her family, subsequent support from human rights activists, expeditious processing of her application by the unhcr and canada finally granting her asylum, isn’t just a plain news story.

having reached canada, qunun breathed a sigh of relief and expressed joy over new prospects in a new country where she could pursue education, have a job and live according to her will.

almost at the same time here in india we come across reports of violence against a woman who entered the sabrimala temple, escaping the eye of vigilantes. almost no mainstream political party would come out in the defence of this woman whose only ‘sin’ is that she abided by the ruling of the supreme court of india that threw open the temple to women of menstruating age, something that was banned due to age-old customs.

the president of the ruling bharatiya janta party has openly criticized the judgment of the apex court and has said that courts of law shall not rule over religious matters.

sabrimala issue is just one of many ills that have suddenly made their way into the indian society that until some time ago was treading slowly but steadily towards making an inclusive india, where all are equal, irrespective of religion, caste, class, race or gender. and there are many evidences that can establish that the bjp win in 2014 lok sabha elections and the subsequent shift of the party from development to hindu supremacy have been the driving force.

what can one expect when the president of the ruling political party publicly announces that his party shall rule the country for another 50 years, no matter the mob killed a man from minority faith over rumours of cow slaughter? but the real problem is not the politicians from this party but some sections of the electorate that are buying their arguments, despite the fact that these are making us a more intolerant and regressive society.

the bjp government had also failed to protect the human rights of a dubai princess, latifa, who a few months ago escaped her home country to lead a free life elsewhere, but the indian government forcibly sent her back, proving that we lack both astute diplomacy as well as respect for human rights of an individual. loud claims by bjp leaders that all rohingya refugees will be sent back to where they will face further oppression and violence are nothing but steps that are quietly making india more and more regressive.

for indians, if they want the nation to develop further on the lines of the west (where rule of law, human rights and democratic values are placed above anything else, and this subsequently paves way for inclusive economic development), either the bjp must mend its governance, or the electorate should act smart in 2019.

is india becoming a regressive theocracy under bjp?

aitzaz hasan bangash was a pakistani boy whose story not many in india know. he was killed in 2014 while preventing a suicide bomber from attacking his school that was being attended by 2000 students. there is another name, bibi aisha, an afghan woman. she was given to a talibani fighter by her family when she was 12 and a few years later she was found with her nose and ears cut off. but why cite these incidents when talking about india which is the world’s largest democracy and has a thriving economy?

it is because the aforementioned cases can be juxtaposed with many recent happenings in india, although one can term this as extrapolation. mobs all across the country have inhumanly killed members of a minority faith on suspicion of cow slaughter. not only this, members from the backward caste were brutally thrashed when performing their job of skinning dead cows. and in yet another incident in uttar pradesh’s ghaziabad, a team of municipal contractors was beaten up while they were transporting dead cattle. in all cases, the perpetrators were motivated by religious fundamentalism and were found raising religious slogans.

but wait. this isn’t the sole issue. what exacerbates the problem is the ruling bjp’s unwillingness to cleanse indian politics. after coming to power in 2014, the party also went on to win many state polls but in the course they admitted virtually every aspirant who wanted a career in politics, for self-service. this has led to a new brass at the bottom level that comprises of young leaders who feel religious conservatism and evoking of faith is the easiest way to garner support of the electorate.

take another case of the recently held science congress. the speakers, who hold prominent positions in state institutions, did not shy away from disregarding proven scientific principles and making a case for ancient indian scientific prowess. sadly, their assertions were totally unfounded and were made only to find some patronage from the ruling party. this trend now exists in almost every sphere, from rbi to niti aayog.

next, the party is adopting an all new style of propagating its ideology and personality cult. a recently released motion picture that depicts the former prime minister, manmohan singh, as a mere puppet controlled by the nehru-gandhi family is not a film but a political propaganda and even film critics have admitted this. a short film based on narendra modi’s struggle during childhood days was also released some time back and a new commercial-style film is being produced with modi as the central character.

from disregarding the supreme court’s verdict in the sabrimala temple case to bringing amendments to the citizenship act where non-muslim minorities of some neighbouring countries are to be naturalized as indian citizens, the bjp government is not only subverting the ‘rule of law’ but is also destroying india’s liberalism and secularism. sadly, they call others’ secularism as pseudo-secularism.

the case of aitzaz hasan bangash and bibi aisha must be studied in depth to understand what religious orthodoxy and impunity of communal elements can produce, and how they can plunge a nation into crisis. for this, one must also study soviet invasion of afghanistan, the rise of taliban and the roots of terrorism in pakistan.

for india to become a cosmopolitan, developed economy, much like the west where almost every indian aspires to settle. and where rule of law shall prevail, religion has to be separated from politics, else we may unwantedly and unknowingly tread into a dark future as is the case today with iran, afghanistan pakistan and many others.

from modi-wave to ‘modism’

politics is an unethical job. one may be completely honest towards his office, but political compulsions, more so in a democracy where one fears a defeat in subsequent polls, rarely allow politicians to abide by the virtuous code of conduct. in india, a leader has to manage different quarters with dissimilar demands and yet must make sure that all these conflicting interests are taken care of.

so, even if we disapprove of these facts, the reality would not change- a strictly uncompromising leader still remains a distant dream.

but when it comes to compromises, there are legitimate boundaries that shall never be breached. in the past 4 years, the modi-led bjp government not only breached these boundaries but they treaded so violently into unethical zones that the once seemingly invincible modi now stands vulnerable to electoral defeats. but where did he go so wrong?

politicians in a country like india, where much of the population still faces various socio-economic impediments in everyday life, quite often tend to make a similar mistake. from indira gandhi to mayawati and now narendra modi, all these politicians when they were at the peak of their respective careers, overvalued their stocks. similar to the stock markets where corrections occur after regular intervals to bring back stocks to their legitimate value, politics is no different.

in modi’s case, his party men are leaving no stone unturned in propagating a neo-political ideology that we can term ‘modism’. modism may not comprise of express intolerance against minority groups but since it relies on popular majority support to stay relevant, a silence on atrocities on minorities is an indispensable part of it. for example, the bjp stance on the sabrimala verdict is a clear manifestation of what identity politics can lead to- violation of the principle of rule of law.

and prime minister modi cannot help but accept the state of affairs to ensure continuity of his office, something akin to manmohan singh’s silence on corruption by coalition parties during his second term. what this has led to is the rise of self-seeking elements within the bjp, which is welcoming people of all sorts given that they can command support from the electorate. the call for decriminalization of politics is nowhere to be found.

although, as stated earlier, politics may be an unethical job, one cannot disregard ethics only to hold on to power. in case modi believes he has lost the command over unethical elements within his party and that he can no longer deliver inclusive development, he can and should vacate his office, or at least trigger some sort of political cleansing so that india of 21^st century is rid of its long-standing demerits.

else, similar to the fall of maoism and other such political ideologies, modism too would fall, sooner or later, leaving modi as a failed politician in political history of india. what may survive his legacy may be the right-wing extremism that will seen as a threat to country’s stability, just like maoism-inspired left-wing insurgency.

here’s what’s wrong with bjp and modi

more than 4years have passed since the country witnessed a watershed moment where a single party won electoral majority after decades of fractured mandates. narendra modi became country’s prime minister, and let us tell you why almost every second voter was thrilled- they saw the rise of a ‘chai-wallah’ from being a boy with no political patronage to occupying nation’s most powerful office.

modi’s bjp could win the imagination of the electorate because one, the public found the only other alternative, congress, as a party of the powerful and corrupt; and two, modi was projected as the only savior of the poor, middle-class and corporates. another underpinning was the hindu-supremacy narrative that was propagated superbly through social media platforms by depicting the majority faith as reeling under appeasement politics of non-nda parties.

modi has achieved some goals, for example, financial inclusion, increased pace of electrification and paving of new roads, a new indirect tax regime and a seemingly effective law on insolvency. the problem arises when all these works are being projected as being done by a ‘great benevolent ruler’, and that only he and his team could have achieved this. in this narrative, the congress, which has its own set of past achievements and failures, is being presented as a party which only weakened indian society and economy.

but is this narrative true? no. what is actually wrong is that cult of personality has overshadowed the politics of india in past 4 years. almost every bjp leader or woker finds it impossible to end her/ his speech without mentioning the word ‘modi’ and his alleged superpowers, and the worst part is that the prime minister himself mentions his own name ‘modi’ multiple times in his public speeches while attacking the opposition.

the outcome of this is that all accountable and responsible persons, including leaders, ministers, chief ministers, governors, public sector employees and bureaucrats, have accorded all preference to praising the cult leader rather than treading the path of reforms and progress. chest-thumping on every policy action has become a trend with the word ‘historic’ being used to describe every action of government.

although history cannot repeat itself in exactly the same manner, historical events do provide some hints. adolf hitler gained a cult status on the back of chauvinism (exaggerated patriotism), xenophobia and supremacy of one race over the other. in india of today, hindus are being called upon to rise to the fear of a minority faith takeover and all bjp leaders, including its national president, are using this fear as a tool to remain in power.

increased rates of fuel in india, low credit growth, inadequate job growth, corruption are all being sidelined and a false impression of india rising as a superpower under modi is being created. the truth, however, is that corruption and inefficiency in public offices is still widespread, public sector enterprises are only wasting public money on high salaries and low productivity, india isn’t mentioned in power politics of even asia, let alone the world, and the government is busy criticizing congress rather than counting its own achievements even after an almost 5-year term in office.

bjp believes modi and the patriotic narrative will win them 2019; we doubt this since the general public can no longer be tricked by unnecessarily changing names of cities, placing hindu monks as chief ministers and building unwanted statues of public figures. the fall of mayawati in uttar pradesh assembly elections of 2012 holds much cue.

why narendra modi may not go down as a great leader

one needs to revolutionise the prevailing settings in order to be remembered as a great leader. what narendra modi has done or achieved to date isn’t anything extraordinary. he was blessed with oil prices at their historical low, and although such initiatives as mudra and skill india are promising, these are not enough to earn the prime minister the tag of ‘a great reformer’ or to bring the promised socio-economic progress.

what lacks is the will to alter the political landscape of india that is inundated with dishonest and prejudiced politicians. to form governments in states, the bjp not only welcomed goons but also has compromised the ideals of good governance. present bjp leaders not only publicly endorse accused and convicted men, they also try to make a hero out of them only to gain electoral support. unless politics of country is rid of vested interests, no reform can sustain in the medium and long run.

second, india’s public sector space is riddled with lackadaisical attitude of staffers and their want for kickbacks in return of favours. be it police, bank officials, psu staffers or government contractors, the sense of impunity and privilege, coupled with fixed tenure and relatively high salaries, has taken over the sense of dutifulness and this has resulted in continued suppression of human rights and even oppression of faith and caste minorities.

even after 4 years of modi-rule at the centre and with more than 20 states under direct or indirect rule of the party, no government department or organization could be purged of corruption and lack of sense of duty. the country where stringent rules and laws were required to rein in corrupt officials, the government diluted the anti-corruption act to the detriment of the common man.

in almost every other crime, there is some involvement of a politician or a government official, either by being directly complicit or by not responding to the wrongdoing when necessary. as if this wasn’t enough, the bjp’s unwanted stress on protection of cows and other chauvinistic elements have provided the local level elements with enough ammunition to target the already suppressed classes, be it the poor, women or caste or faith minority.

yes, narendra modi may not have any vested interests and may be completely patriotic and duty-bound. but for him to go down in history as a truly reformist leader, he needs to initiate a program to clean up indian polity and state institutions. else, all his schemes and policy actions- which already aren’t producing projected outcomes due to inept implementation- will end up being yet-another failed promise by a past prime minister.

the ‘underdog theory’ for 2019 lok sabha elections

the election of donald trump as the president of the united states in 2017 was an unexpected outcome of a contest that experts believed was totally tilted toward hillary clinton. allegations ranging from vested business interests to inappropriate conduct with women in the past couldn’t stop the americans to vote for the ‘underdog’, who was simply and brutally written off by political analysts and mainstream media.

this is what electoral politics is all about. in 2014 general elections, no one predicted such landslide victory of the modi-led bjp party, it still happened. for the upcoming 2019 lok sabha polls, experts can only predict either a majority for the national democratic alliance (nda) or a fractured mandate with no clear majority to any party. indeed, the indian national congress, in view of most political analysts, stands no chance to come up with maximum number of seats in the parliament.

of course, the bjp has delivered on some aspects. free lpg connections to poor households and mudra loans are a few schemes that have made a difference. but all the rhetoric by the bjp campaign in the run up to the 2014 elections didn’t eventually turn reality. we are still appeasing china; pakistan hasn’t been reined in; the kashmir issue has worsened; rupee has fallen to its lowest level; petrol prices too peaked; and jobs aren’t meeting the demand.

but the issue that can take all the sheen away from the modi-led government is the remorseless oppression of religious minorities and lower-caste hindus. add to this the failure of modi in cleansing indian political landscape that even today is riddled with corruption at all levels (bjp has welcomed goons and corrupts in the party only to seek votes). corruption and lackadaisical attitude of employees in public sector, be it bureaucrats or government bank officials, too has stayed as it is.

and then comes rahul gandhi who has in his fierce trust-vote discussion speech gave the electoral what it needed, a perfect reason to empathise. he accepted the so-called ‘pappu’ name given to him by none other than behind-the-scene bjp cadre (that comes up with various short videos mocking rahul gandhi) and went ahead to hug the prime minister, who did not stand up from his seat (a mark that will be seen as arrogance).

and let’s not forget that the indian electorate loves underdogs- election of pm modi is a perfect example. the underdog of today is rahul gandhi, a man whose speech of ‘love and anti-hate’ can resonate well with voters, especially the ones for whom mob-violence is a concern, not a chest-thumping event. in fact, rahul gandhi has scripted a re-birth of sorts for the ailing congress, and if he can carry the tag of an ‘underdog’ till the voting day, the picture can surprisingly alter.